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Journal of Tropical Pediatrics Advance Access originally published online on October 26, 2007
Journal of Tropical Pediatrics 2008 54(2):114-119; doi:10.1093/tropej/fmm093
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© The Author [2007]. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

Factors Associated with Secular Trends in Mortality Attributed to Measles in Gweru, Zimbabwe, in 1967–89

T. Marufua, S. Siziyab and K. S. T. Mudamboc

aLiverpool JMU Centre for Public Health, Castle House, North Street, Liverpool, UK
bDepartment of Community Medicine, University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia
cDepartment of Physiology, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe

Correspondence: Dr Tawanda Marufu, Liverpool JMU Centre for Public Health, Castle House, North Street, Liverpool, L2 2AY UK. E-mail < marufut{at}yahoo.com>.


  Abstract

A retrospective study conducted in Gweru, Zimbabwe, investigated the trend and its associated factors in measles mortality between 1967 and 1989. Measles and malnutrition surveillance data were analysed in SPSS version 8.0 using the Forward Stepwise Linear Regression method. Measles case fatality rates ranged from zero to 48.2% (median: 4.2, Q1 = 1.2, Q3 = 12.9) and they significantly linearly declined [slope = –1.686; 95% confidence interval (CI) –2.327, –1.044; R2 = 59%]. Rates of mortality among complicated measles cases (slope = 0.546, 95% CI = 0.133–0.345) and rates of mortality from malnutrition among children aged <5 years (slope = 0.459, 95% CI = 0.031–0.099) independently predicted (R2 = 87%) measles case fatality rates. It was concluded that decline in rates of mortality among complicated measles cases, probably due to good management of such cases, and decline in rates of malnutrition among children aged <5 years may have contributed to the decline in measles case fatality rates.

Key Words: measles • mortality • secular trends • Gweru • Zimbabwe


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